In addition to Valverde as a Player to Watch, Maxi Araujo has been in stellar form this tournament. Darwin Nunez has been a constant threat, but his finishing has been inconsistent. If he finds his finishing boots in this match we’ll be in trouble. Ronald Araujo is a beast at CB and is one of the best defenders in this tournament.

It shouldn’t be controversial at this point to say Uruguay has the better manager in Marcelo Bielsa. Luckily though, he’s suspended in this match because Uruguay was late coming out for the second half of their previous game. He’ll surely have an unofficial way to communicate with the team, but that does help.

Bielsa’s teams famously play extremely high intensity soccer. We should expect high pressure looking to force us into turnovers that create opportunity for Uruguay on the break. That worked pretty well for Colombia…so we have to be better in possession and more intelligent with when certain players get forward than we were in that game.

It would be reasonable to think that Uruguay might sit back and play for a draw in this match. A draw sees them win the group and avoid the winner from Group D (Brazil or Colombia) in the quarterfinals. However, Bielsa teams don’t seem to know any other way to play. We expect them to come out and play the same way they have the first two matches of the tournament. 

Not that he asked for it, but here’s how we’d advise Coach to set up versus Uruguay. 

Weah is a big loss given his athleticism, ability to finish, and willingness to track back on defense. We could use all 3 of those against Uruguay.

We see 3 primary options to replace Weah. Brenden Aaronson, Gio Reyna, and Haji Wright. Among those, Wright has the best athleticism, and possibly the best finishing ability. Aaronson brings a balance of all 3 and leads the pack in willingness and ability to track back. Reyna has a better ability to play incisive balls and unlock defenses, and has shown much more willingness to track back post World Cup, but he lacks a bit of athleticism.

We’d go with Reyna this match for several reasons. It creates room for Musah in midfield, and we need his athleticism and ability to break a press there, badly. We also think we need Reyna’s willingness to track back as Araujo has been great on Uruguay’s left. Aaronson would be our second choice, but even if Reyna doesn’t start at right wing, we’d still start Musah in midfield.

1) Leave Balogun on the pitch until he can’t run anymore. He’s been our best option at striker by far this tournament. If he needs to come off late, we’d like to Sargent because he’ll provide more energy as a sub and Pepi just isn’t in form right now.

2) It’s time to let Adams off the controlled minutes leash. At least give him 75. When he has to go off (and he likely will because he’s not fully match fit) move Musah to the holding midfield role and leave Cardoso on the bench. Cardoso did fine against Bolivia but against quicker, more athletic teams (Colombia, Panama) he’s been invisible at best and a liability in transition offense at worst. Depending on the situation, bring on Wright (if we need a goal) or Aaronson (if we need defend) and move Reyna to Musah’s previous midfield slot.

1) For the love of all that is holy please be willing to play more direct when under pressure. If Uruguay’s pressure causes as many turnovers from our back line and holding midfielders as Colombia’s did, we’re screwed.

2) Don’t let McKennie and Musah push too high until we’ve successfully completed a transition into attack. Same goes for Scally and Robinson. If we turn it over and are exposed Uruguay will punish us. 

3) We think we need to be “solid” for the first 15 minutes. We can’t win the game in the first 15 but conceding early could be disastrous for our psyche.

4) Be physical. Don’t be stupid, but we agree with Alexi Lallas’s comments on his podcast that Uruguay needs to know they are in for a game straight from the start. Christian Pulisic’s foul on Raphinha in the early stages of the Brazil game is a perfect example. Without getting a yellow card, he sent a clear message that we’re here to compete.

5) We have an advantage on our left flank. Robinson is a better player than Pelestri, and Pulisic is better than Nandez. Exploit it. Look to get the ball to the two of them early and often and let them combine with McKennie and Balogun.  

We absolutely can win this game. We just need the lineup and tactics to put us in the best position to succeed. Berhalter has consistently disappointed us on that front. If he disappoints again it’s time for a new manager.

Before each game we compare our preferred Starting XI to the players they’ll match up against on the pitch. For example we compare our center forward to the oppositions center backs.

For the Uruguay match, we ran two scenarios. In the first, Uruguay puts out all their starters. In the second, they make wholesale changes to their lineup. It makes a huge difference in matchups as you can see below.

According to the press in Uruguay, the most likely scenario is somewhere in the middle. Rotating the squad a bit, but only bringing in players where the gap to the first choice is small. The matchups there look basically identical to our matchups chart against their starters. We do suspect Uruguay will look to rotate the squad further if they are looking virtually certain to top the group as the end draws nearer. They don’t really care if they draw 0-0 or lose 0-1, unless Panama is absolutely smoking Bolivia by something along the lines of 6-0. They do care if Valverde or Nunez gets injured.

A quick note, these player ratings are based on our analytical modeling – you can see more details on how we did this on our Analytical Methodology Explainer. These ratings underpinned our 2024 Copa America Power Rankings, and the “how we stack up” section above too. 

Scale: Significant Advantage, Slight Advantage, Approximately Even, Slight Disadvantage, Significant Disadvantage

A lot more green in that second chart, let’s hope they do decide to rotate some players from the start, and protect key personnel as the match wears on.

There is no doubt about it, this is a difficult game. But these are two relatively evenly matched teams in terms of raw talent. Their advantage is not insurmountable.

Gambling markets have this match just about even. The odds imply a 30% chance of a draw, a 35% chance of Uruguay win, and a 40% chance of a USA win. (Note the chances don’t add up to 100% because the house always keeps an advantage). You read that right. We’re actually slight favorites over Uruguay in this game.

One major factor that is unquestionably in our favor is motivation. We are fighting for our lives, and Uruguay can lose 1-0 or 2-1 and very safely still win the group. We are convinced that matters. It won’t matter AS MUCH in the early stages of this game, but it will as it fades. 

We think this will be tight for the first 60 minutes. Likely 0-0 or 1-1. Maybe even 2-1 Uruguay.

But as the game wears on, our greater motivation will be a telling factor as both teams begin to wear out, and Uruguay decides to take some key players off the field to avoid injury and/or exhaustion. USA winner in the 80th or later.

Keeping it simple this game. We don’t want to be thinking about anything other than the result.

USA to win +150