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First, we have defending World Cup champs AND defending Copa America champions, Argentina. They feature one of the strongest attacks in the world. The GOAT, Leo Messi, gets all the attention, but his partner Lautaro Martinez is our second highest-rated player in this tournament. They have quality all over the field, including 3 World Class midfielders, and our second highest rated defense in the tournament. They have depth to survive injuries and yellow cards. They have been hot recently too, as they are top of the table in South American 2026 World Cup Qualifying.

Obviously Messi. We don’t know how many more times we’ll get to see this legend play at the very highest level and we should enjoy it while we can. He doesn’t have the pace he once did, but his first touch and ball control are still mesmerizing. He can finish, and his vision to make incisive passes that open up a defense is second to none. Argentina is stacked though. Keep an eye out for how they use Lautaro Martinez, Serie A player of the year (trust us, that’s impressive) who sometimes is used as a super sub instead of from the start. Emiliano Martinez is one of the world’s best keepers, and has played hero in multiple penalty shootouts for Argentina.

Not to beat a dead horse, but Messi this possibly being the last major tournament for (in our view) the Greatest of All-Time is a big deal. But there’s more. This team can establish itself as one of the greatest dynasties in the history of soccer. If they win, it would be 3 consecutive major tournaments – 2021 Copa America, 2022 World Cup, and 2024 Copa America. That’s SO hard to do. Argentina is favored to win it all, with Vegas giving them about a 35% chance to retain the title.

Chile’s Golden Generation of the 2010s are now in the autumn of their careers. They have one of the oldest rosters in the tournament, and their starters have an average age of 31. For comparison, the USA’s starters are a youthful 25 on average. In 2010 and 2014, they went out to Brazil in the World Cup, once on PKs. No shame in that. Then they won Copa America in 2015 and 2016. They have talent in attack and a great goalie, so they will be dangerous. They are solid in midfield and defense, but lack depth to truly make a deep run, but they absolutely could make the knockout stages and get out of this group. 

Alexis Sanchez once featured for the likes of Barcelona, Arsenal, and Man United. But he’s now 35 and out of contract. He played well for Inter this season when he got in. Does he still have the legs to give it a full 90 for his country? Claudio Bravo won Champions League a decade ago, but he is 41. That’s old, even for a keeper. 

Chile will be looking to take a trip down memory with one last major tournament for their Golden Generation. Can emerging talents like Ben Brereton Diaz and Victor Davila, pick up the baton? Chile beat Argentina in back-to-back Copa America Finals in 2015 and 2016. We suspect Messi & Co. won’t have forgotten that pain, and might be out for a little major tournament revenge. Watch out for a big number in their game on June 25.

Canada has elements of their own Golden Generation right now, similar to the USA. Their very best talent is on par with our very best talent, but they lack the USA’s consistent talent all across the pitch, and depth on their bench. It would be a stretch for them to win the tournament, but they have a strong chance to advance from this group. Still, we think they’ll be motivated under their new manager, Jesse Marsch. USA fans will recognize Marsch as the former coach of Leeds, during a time when Brenden Aaronson, Tyler Adams, and Weston McKennie were at Leeds.

23-year old Alphonso Davies is one of the best left backs in the world. He is lightning quick, has a great first touch, and manages to affect the game at both ends consistently. He plays for Bayern Munich, Champions League semifinalists this year and always one of the best teams in Europe. Jonathan David is another emerging star, he plays up top for Lille one of the best teams in France and perpetual Champions League qualifier. He gives them a chance to get goals. Lastly, we want to highlight Maxime Crepeau. He’s arguably the weak link here and will need to play well for Canada to advance.

Canada made waves when they finished first in CONCACAF 2022 World Cup Qualifying, ahead of the USA and Mexico. They also made the Finals of CONCACAF Nations League in 2023. They have talent to succeed. However, they suffered a run of poor form after John Herdman departed to coach Toronto’s MLS team. You may recall Herdman made headlines by becoming a rare coach to move from the women’s game to the men’s. He’s clearly an excellent coach, as he also led the Canadian women’s team to back-to-back Olympic Bronze Medals before taking over the men’s team. Their form dropped under interim manager Mauro Biello, but Marsch has a real chance to turn things back around. If he succeeds, and the USA disappoints in this tournament, Marsch could be in the running for the USA job, again. 

Honestly we think Peru is in trouble this tournament. Like Chile, their best players are aging, but those players never hit the same highs that Chile was able to achieve. Morale could be low given their basement-dwelling form in 2026 World Cup Qualifying. To make matters worse, their best player voluntarily decided not to make the journey to the USA to play in the Copa. More on that below. 

Gianluca Lapadula leads the line up front. He plays for Cagliari in Serie A and is one of very few Peruvian players to feature in a Top 5 European League. Defender Alexander Callens (AEK Athens) will need to be a rock at the back. Expect Keeper Pedro Gallese to be busy. 

Renato Tapia would easily be Peru’s best player in our model, if only he were in the squad. He was a stud defensive midfielder this season for RC Celta Vigo, in Spain’s top division La Liga. He plays alongside American midfielder Luca de la Torre, and consistently outperforms him. With Tapia, Peru would have a chance to get out of this group, but without him we feel their chances are extremely slim.

The coach wants Tapia in the squad, so why isn’t he on the roster?  Tapia’s contract with Celta Vigo runs out on June 30, meaning he doesn’t yet have a team for next season. This makes Copa America a risky proposition. There’s upside, if he performs well, lots of clubs will be watching and he might get a move to an even bigger team. But…if he gets injured, no one will pick him up and he’ll be unpaid. Tapia wanted the Peruvian football association to insure him. They refused, and he refused to play. Somewhat surprising that there weren’t any wealthy Peruvian football fans who could have picked up the bill. Either way, bad vibes for this team as the tournament kicks off.

Every Argentina match is must-see-TV. They open the tournament against Canada on June 20. They follow that with a match against Chile on June 25, and close out the group stage against Peru on June 29. 

Otherwise – we think Chile v. Canada, also on June 29, will effectively be an elimination game. Likely that both teams will be on 3 points after beating Peru and losing to Argentina, and the winner will go through to the knockout phases. Tune in to see whether Chile’s experience or Canada’s youthful exeburance carries the day.

Argentina will move on with either 7 or 9 points.

Canada will triumph over Chile and advance out of this group, as their youthful legs will have more left in them than those of Chile’s aging stars when the two meet in the final group stage game.

Peru might take a drubbing in their first two matches. Goal differential will be critical for both Canada and Chile, who might both be sitting on 3 points heading into their final group stage game on June 29. Whoever has better goal differential will only need a draw to go through, while the other team will have to get a W. We might smash the over in Peru’s first two group stage games.