In our earlier analysis, we showed that Berhalter has produced mid table results with a squad that is highly likely our most talented ever. He’s had strong individual contributions in recruitment and in team chemistry, but we have serious issues with his tactical inflexibility. 

We put all the data together in one chart that we find particularly convincing. We graphed our tournament results as a function of talent on the field. As you move up on the chart, our tournament results are better. As you move right, the talent we had on the pitch improves. While there is a lot of variation, in general the more talent we had, the better we performed.

The diagonal line is how well each manager could be expected to do based on how much talent was on their roster. The data point with their name and the year of the tournament is how well they actually did. Points near the line basically mean the manager accomplished what they should have given the talent on the roster. Managers above the line outperformed, and those under the line underperformed.

Note: you can see our methodology for how we evaluated talent on the field here.

At this point, we can now answer the question we originally set out to answer with a high level of confidence, based on a rational view and not only on our knee jerk emotional reaction to the Copa America debacle. We are underperforming the level of talent we have on the field.

To be fair, we do think the debate over whether this is the most talent we’ve ever had has some legitimacy given historical biases in European football against American players. Those appear to be gone or at least weakening, so just playing for a bigger club isn’t a guarantee of being a better player. However, we have to say there is very strong evidence that this is the most talented generation ever, and it’s not realistic to argue it is less talented than past generations.

So…we have a generation that is at least equal in talent to past generations and likely more talented, and they are producing results that are on par with or worse than past generations. Sounds like underperformance to us. 

Even if this team’s talent is only on par with past generations, it means Berhalter is doing an average job. Surely we can get another “average” manager to replace him and not lose anything. If this team’s talent truly is above our historical level, then Berhalter is doing a poor job, and should be replaced. The risk/reward profile of this decision is clear, we need to move on.

Some of you may be thinking, “what about comments from the players who have backed Berhalter after Copa America?” We find those unpersuasive. Clint Dempsey said it best – who is going to criticize a guy who might still be their manager and risk playing time? Some of them have said the team would run through a wall for Berhalter, but they should be running through a wall for the crest on their shirt not the man in the coach’s box, and we believe they will if we change managers. These guys will remain motivated to change the soccer landscape in the USA whether Gregg Berhalter is manager or not.

We have made a lot of progress since the debacle of 2018 World Cup Qualifying. Unfortunately for Berhalter, the evidence points to him not being the right guy to finish the job. In multiple aspects of life, whether it’s managing club soccer, building a college football program, or rescuing companies from the brink of bankruptcy, some people are just better suited to the rescue than building a champion.

We genuinely thank Berhalter for what he’s done to rebuild the foundations of this program. It’s easy to forget that we were in shambles after failing to qualify for the 2018 World Cup. He got us back on track and helped set ambitious goals for this program to change the face of soccer in America. There is value in stretching to achieve more and we think this team should be aiming to do that. Even if US Soccer does the right thing and changes direction, Berhalter can hold his head high and view his reign as a success.

We’ll publish more on what the US Soccer Federation should look for in our next manager in the coming days.