We took a deep dive on all 16 teams and produced our own power rankings. Our rankings are focused on the quality of each team, not explicitly their chance of winning. For example, we rate Argentina and Brazil very similarly, but Argentina has a much easier path to the semis, so we’d consider their chances of winning Copa America to be significantly higher. FYI, even though we show FIFA rankings and Vegas odds on each team below, these are for comparison purposes only. They are not part of our methodology. 

Here are the main factors we considered to produce our rankings:

• Recent Form: We focus on recent results in competitive matches. In competitive matches teams put their best foot forward, in contrast to “friendlies” where a team might give a new player a chance or try out a new tactic. For the South American teams, we’ve focused on standings in 2026 World Cup Qualifying. For North and Central American teams that is not available, so we looked at their performance in the 2023/2024 CONCACAF Nations League. On the margin, we did consider recent friendly performances, like the USA’s embarrassing loss to Colombia and historic draw against Brazil.
• Player Quality in the Starting 11: For each player on all 16 rosters, we produced a single measurement of their quality. To do this, we combine data from: 1) the transfer market, where teams buy and sell the rights to player contracts. Better players tend to be more expensive, but we note that the transfer value of a player declines as they age. We adjusted for this bias to produce a truer representation of a player’s quality; 2) Player performances during their most recent club season, as measured by independent soccer data sites. We did adjust these performances to consider the strength of the league in which each player plays. In other words, if you performed extremely well in the Premier League, we rated you higher than another player with identical performances in MLS or the Brazilian league; and 3) EA FC 24 Player Ratings – they are independent and, in general, well researched. 
• Quality on the Bench: We used the same methodology and applied it to players who have been making appearances for their national teams in recent matches, but not starting. We think this is particularly important in tournament play, where the games are frequent, injuries happen, and players get suspended for yellow and/or red cards. Teams that lack depth to withstand these circumstances were rated lower.

We used those player ratings to produce an overall rating for each team. For those, we took the average rating of players in each of the 5 phases of the game we present below (attack, midfield, defense, goalkeeping, and bench depth). We first averaged the rating of the players who are starting in attack, midfield, etc. Next we averaged the rating in each of those “phases” to produce a single number, which gives equal weight to each of the 5 phases.

As you can probably tell, there is some serious work behind these numbers. You can learn more about our analytical methodology here. If you still have questions or feedback, contact us. 

One last note before we dive in. There are no bad players in this tournament. Even though we rate the midfield of Panama with a red circle, those are objectively great soccer players. However, we have to distinguish between the relative awesomeness of each team and each player, and we think our rating system does exactly that. Without further ado, let’s get to the Power Rankings.

This edition of Copa America features two teams that, on paper, are clearly stronger than the rest of the field.

1. Argentina: First, we have defending World Cup champs AND defending Copa America champions, Argentina. They feature one of the strongest attacks in the world. The GOAT, Leo Messi, gets all the attention, but his partner Lautaro Martinez is our second highest-rated player in this tournament. They have quality all over the field, including 3 World Class midfielders, and our second highest rated defense in the tournament. They have depth to survive injuries and yellow cards. 

2. Brazil: Brazil features our number 3 and 4 strikers in the Copa America, in Vini Junior and Rodrygo. That pairing just won the Champions League with Real Madrid, and their chemistry upfront should not be underestimated. Brazil has the most valuable roster in the tournament in the transfer market, just one of many indicators of the talent they possess. Although their midfield is strong, they don’t have the same world class players as Argentina in that part of the field.

Despite Brazil’s slight numerical advantage according to our model, we’re giving Argentina the nod as our top-rated team. They are the holders of this title and the World Cup, and they are top of the table in the highly competitive South American (CONMEBOL) World Cup Qualifying for 2026. Their recent form stands in contrast to Brazil’s, who are 6th in World Cup Qualifying (out of 10 teams), which resulted in firing their manager. New manager Dorival Junior has produced some impressive results in his 4 friendlies at the helm, but we feel more confident in Argentina’s form in competitive matches.

While it isn’t factored into our ratings, we do note that Argentina has a much easier path to the semifinals than Brazil. Brazil’s group features another legit title contender in Colombia, and their quarterfinal matchup is likely to be against either the USA or Uruguay – who are also good enough to win this tournament. Argentina is likely to have a much easier quarterfinal matchup, cruising to the semis before they face a true test.  

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Teams in this section aren’t exactly favorites to win, but they have a legit shot. All of them have global stars in attack. They also have midfields and defenses that are filled with players from Europe’s Top 5 leagues, where the world’s absolute best players are put to the test week in and week out. While they have no glaring weaknesses, they don’t have as much talent as Argentina or Brazil. For what it’s worth, ranking these 3 proved to be extremely difficult. On paper, they have very similar talent levels, but with strengths in different parts of the pitch.

3. Uruguay: We’ve ranked Uruguay 3rd for two key reasons. 1) Federico Valverde – he’s one of the world’s best midfielders and the best player not on Brazil or Argentina in this tournament. 2) Uruguay’s history of winning this tournament. We know, these current players didn’t win it, but there’s just something intangible with this that seems to propel past winners. Maybe it’s extra motivation or confidence that comes from knowing your country has done it before, maybe it’s the previous generation passing on the knowhow. Whatever it is, it’s real. 

4. Colombia: Colombia is above the USA because they are probably the hottest team in the world right now. Their unbeaten run is up to 23 games, including wins over Spain, Germany, and even Brazil. As much as we wanted to, we just can’t rank the USA ahead of Colombia after our 5-1 friendly loss to them on June 8. We were tempted to rank Colombia ahead of Uruguay, but their goalkeeping is a real weakness. Don’t be surprised if they get eliminated in a penalty shootout.

5. USA: As we covered in our Copa America Explained piece, the USA does have a real chance to win this. As Christian Pulisic showed all season for AC Milan, and more recently against Brazil, he can get it done against the world’s very best. To win, we’ll need a strong showing from our midfield, and a healthy Tyler Adams. We’ll also need Joe Scally to cover for Sergiño Dest’s absence by playing as well defensively as he did against Brazil and Colombia. And last, but not least, we need coach Berhalter to get the tactics right, and to take advantage of our improving depth. In the 2022 World Cup, we were excellent for 3 matches and escaped from a very difficult group, but we didn’t rotate the squad at all. It showed, as we looked tired while getting beat 3-1 by the Netherlands. We have true talent on our bench now, something we haven’t been able to say as a country until the last couple of years. Here’s hoping we use it, and that we get a little luck too.

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These teams have an outside chance to win the tournament, but they have weaknesses that the Dos a Cero team believes are highly likely to prevent them from bringing home the Copa. Still, with a lot of luck, you never know.  In general, these teams are stronger in attack than in defense. Outside of Keylor Navas of Chile, there isn’t much to speak of in terms of goal keeping quality either. 

6. Mexico: Mexico fell out of the “In the Mix” bucket due to the USA’s recent dominance in that rivalry. Mexico just isn’t as good as us right now. Sorry, not sorry.

7, 8, 9. Chile, Paraguay, Canada: A tightly bunched trio here, each with a mixture of very good talent with some gaps. We could realistically have put any of them in slots 7-9, but we felt Navas gives Chile the edge, especially when you think about PKs in an elimination round. Paraguay’s depth made them our favorite over Canada. If either of their megastars Jonathan David (Lille, F) or Alphonso Davies (Bayern Munich, LB) were to go out with injury or yellow card accumulation, they are in trouble. 

10. Jamaica:  is an interesting team in this tournament. Their coach, Heimir Hallgrímsson, is well-known for taking minnows Iceland to the quarterfinals of the 2016 Euros, with a strategy of team defense and being difficult to break down. In March this year, we saw these tactics nearly knock the USA out of the last Nations League semifinals, when we lucked out with an own goal in stoppage time to avoid defeat. Even without Leon Bailey (their best player, who opted not to play due to a dispute with the Jamaican national soccer association) Jamaica has a lot of talent up front that could create problems for defenses while the rest of the team keeps the defensive shape. Keep an eye out here.

11. Ecuador: They have 2 excellent players, Moises Caicedo of Chelsea and Piero Hincapie of Bayer Leverkusen. Caicedo could be a standout young player of the tournament, while Hincapie is an excellent young defender. The problem is that Ecuador gets quite thin from there. An aging Enner Valencia leads the attack, and if he can repeat his goal scoring from past major tournaments, they could make some noise. Keep an eye on 17-year-old Kendry Paez, who could be a breakout talent and attract offers from European giants.

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Realistically, these teams don’t have the talent to win the Copa America. Anything can happen, but we’ll frankly be surprised if any of these guys make it past the group stage. We’re not going to write too much more on these teams, as the stats speak for themselves. You only need to look as far as the transfer market values to know there just isn’t much there that can compete with the likes of Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, and the USA. In fact, Brazil has 14 PLAYERS that are worth more than Peru’s entire squad.

One important note here. The USA’s first two group stage opponents (Bolivia and Panama) both appear on this list. We can’t stumble in either of these games. We need to be assured of moving on to the knockout rounds by the time we get to the last group stage game against Uruguay. We would not want to head into that game needing a win to advance. From there, Brazil or Colombia is likely to be waiting in the quarters. Getting off to a fast start in the first two games should help us rotate the squad and be fresh for the knockout rounds.

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