USA v. Panama – a chance to qualify for knockout rounds before the Uruguay game
Setting the stage
In game one of the group stage, it was job done for the USA with a 2-0 victory over Bolivia. Uruguay similarly took care of business against Panama, putting both teams on 3 points as we begin the second group stage games. A USA victory tonight, combined with a Uruguay win or draw, would see the USA qualify for the knockout stage as one of the top two teams from Group C.
What to know about panama
Intro: If we learned anything in the first group stage match, it was that Bolivia isn’t very good. Panama will be a significantly more difficult game. Panama is far more athletic, and we know from experience that they will play with intensity. They will be physical and try to disrupt our possession. They have the pace to score on the counter if we aren’t careful. We do not mean this as a slight, but in some ways Panama could be thought of as a poor man’s Colombia, and we saw how effective their pressure was against us in our first warm up match for this tournament. They only had 1 player pick up a yellow in the first match, so they can be aggressive with little fear of a suspension in their 3rd group game.
Talent: We’ve talked a lot in this tournament about players from the “Big 5” European Leagues (England, Spain, Italy, Germany, France). The entire USA lineup will feature in those leagues, while Panama has a single player at that level. Defender Michael Murillo plays for Marseille, one of the best teams in France. Jose Luis Rodriguez plays for Famalcao in Portugal. The rest of the team plays in less competitive leagues like MLS, Mexico’s Liga MX, and many of the less competitive leagues in South America. Some of their MLS based players like Adalberto Carrasquilla and Anibal Godoy have played very well against us in the past.
There is no doubt the USA is the better team, BUT as we have already seen in the Copa America and in Euros, that does not guarantee victory.
Recent Form: In their opening group stage game, Panama was dominated by Uruguay in the first half, but gave a very good account of themselves in the second half. Panama controlled long stretches of the match but ultimately succumbed to late goals from Uruguay that put the match away. The aforementioned Michael Murillo scored a really nice consolation goal in the dying minutes.
In preparation for this tournament Panama fell to Paraguay 1-0, and won two early stage World Cup Qualifiers against CONCACAF minnows.
The last time we played Panama was in the 2023 Gold Cup. The USA sent a B team to that competition, and Panama knocked us out in the semifinals.
PSA: You can check out our match recaps for Bolivia, Brazil, and Colombia to get all the details on how the USA has performed recently.
How we stack up
our advice for coach berhalter
Not that he asked for it, but here’s how we’d advise Coach to set up versus Panama. We’re the better team, so we don’t need to change much. But, we now actually have talent on the bench, so it’s not just about putting out our absolute best 11 every match, we need to put out the team that maximizes our advantages against our opponent.
lineup
Mostly unchanged from the Bolivia match. The one change we want to see is Yunus Musah on from the start. Given Panama’s pace and physicality, Musah is a better matchup. He’s also showed over and over that he can break pressure and create opportunities the other way. He’ll also win the ball back more often than McKennie or Reyna and create fast breaks for us.
That leaves an uncomfortable question of who to sit in midfield. Based on current form, we’d sit McKennie. We love Wes, genuinely, but he’s been struggling a bit since the team got together for Colombia. He’s also on a yellow and would have to be more conservative with his tackles to avoid having to sit out against Uruguay. We’d play Reyna on the left because he combines so well with Christian. Also Scally is a less agile fullback on the right side of defense, so Musah’s agility is more valuable there.
We know that Adams won’t play the full 90. When he comes off, if we’re well ahead, we’d bring on Cardoso. If it’s tied, we’d bring on McKennie and move Musah to Adams’ spot.
Tactics
Our biggest risk in this match is a turnover in transition creating a “fast break” for Panama. Recall we called them a poor man’s Colombia and Colombia’s last 3 goals came from that exact pattern of play. The second biggest risk is Murillo creating space for crosses and/or shots for himself on Panama’s right / our left.
Both of those tell me that Antonee Robinson shouldn’t get forward as much this game as he did against Bolivia. Against Bolivia he was as high up the pitch as Reyna and McKennie on average. We’d like to see him alongside Adams and Scally this time, and maybe even let Scally push forward more.
Lastly, DON’T TURN IT OVER IN TRANSITION. We’re obviously going to play out of the back under Berhalter, but let’s do so wisely. When in doubt, play a long ball. Let’s not beat ourselves.
individual matchups
Like the Bolivia match, we have advantages all over the field. In this chart, we shade each player based on how they compare to the opposition players who we expect to be closest to them on the pitch (except for keeper where we compare to the opposition keeper). The player ratings are based on our analytical modeling – you can see more details on how we did this on our Analytical Methodology Explainer. These ratings underpinned our 2024 Copa America Power Rankings, and the “how we stack up” section above too.
Scale: Significant Advantage, Slight Advantage, Even, Slight Disadvantage, Significant Disadvantage
prediction
This has the potential to be a bit of a trap game. Easy win in the first match with all the excitement of finally getting the tournament under way. Next game is our first true test of the tournament against Uruguay. We think the USA will avoid that trap and come out with the intensity needed to put Panama away. CP10’s intensity plus Adams’ return to the starting 11 give us confidence in that.
Pulisic will outplay Murillo. Adams and Musah will control possession in midfield. Reyna and Balogun will make passes that create opportunities for others. The USA is favored by 1 to 1.5 goals which is a big spread in the world of soccer. Panama’s forwards will struggle to create opportunities against our defense, and they’ll be limited to long range efforts.
Final Score: USA 2 - 0 Panama
Our Bet Sheet
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