USA Look to Recover from 5-1 Loss to Colombia against World Power Brazil
The USA will take on Brazil on Wednesday night in the second of two warm up games for the Copa America. The team needs a strong performance following a 5-1 thrashing at the hands of Colombia. That game was closer than the scoreline would have you believe, but a second loss by multiple goals would be damaging to the psyche headed into the most important tournament we’ll play before hosting the World Cup in 2026.
Brazil are 5-time World Champions – more than any other nation. They have won Copa America nine times, most recently in 2019. They are LOADED with talent all across the roster, including arguably the best front 3 in the world with Vini Jr, Rodrygo, and Raphinha. They have world class depth, and they keep getting better – they have a new 17-year old starlet in Endrick, who is set to join Real Madrid after Copa America ends. However, Brazil changed coaches earlier this year after a poor run of form left them in 6th place in South American World Cup Qualifying.
Their preferred formation under new manager Dorival Junior has been a 4-2-1-3, with Paqueta as the more advanced midfielder. They of course continue to play at a high pace and create chances. They beat England 1-0 at Wembley, then drew with Spain 3-3 at the Bernabeu in March. In their first Copa America prep match they defeated Mexico 3-2 in College Station, TX.
Let’s take a look at the tale of the tape for an overview of how the USA stacks up.
tale of the tape
There is no sugar coating it, Brazil is one of the best teams in the world. Their transfer market value is eye-popping, and it doesn’t even include Neymar – who will miss Copa America due to injury. To be frank though, he probably wouldn’t even start on this team anymore, and might not even come in off the bench. That’s how talented and deep this side is in attack.
If you want to see brilliant attacking soccer, this game is must see. Raphina and Rodrygo just won Champions League with Real Madrid, and Raphinha had a great season for Barcelona. That front 3 can create chances against any team, including the USA.
With that said, their recent qualifying form wasn’t great, and they have conceded 5 goals in 3 matches under Dorival Junior. We’ll need Pulisic to play well in attack, and in particular for him to keep possession to allow other players to push upfield and join in attack. Tim Weah and Antonee Robinson will be under the microscope trying to stop Brazil’s wide players in the front 3 in space, a task we do not envy.
dos a cero's preferred starting 11 and tactics: 5-3-2, look to score on the counter and set pieces
As you can see below, there aren’t many places on the field where we have an advantage on paper. To us, this calls for a more conservative game plan. As we’ve said before – we want to see the USA focus on keeping a solid defensive foundation in this match. If we try to play expansive attacking soccer, we have no doubt that Brazil’s attacking talent will create enough chances for Brazil to win the game.
We view our best chance of getting a result against Brazil to be a solid defense first and look to break quickly to create chances against their midfield and defense that have been exposed in recent matches. We can hit on the counter, and Brazil has also shown to be vulnerable in the air in recent matches so set pieces represent a real opportunity here. It’s time for Berhalter to be pragmatic and try to produce a badly needed result after the Colombia debacle.
Dos a Cero is recommending a 5-3-2, and prioritizing agility and pace when selecting the starting 11. Tactically, we would not recommend a high press as we need to make Brazil create space against us rather than us creating it for them. In attack, we would look to hit quickly on the counter. The plan should be to find McKennie quickly, then have him look to hit long balls to Wright, Pulisic, Robinson, and Weah, who have the speed to get behind Brazil. No one else breaks forward until we’ve retained possession and established territory on Brazil’s side of the pitch. Do not dwell on the ball and get picked off in pressure, if you can’t find a pass, aim for McKennie or Wright in the air as they have the best chance to make it stick.
attacking third
We’re pairing Pulisic and Wright up top. Both can hit on the counter, and both can play wide or centrally. We think that flexibility will be important as we break. We’re shading Pulisic to the right because he’s demonstrated ability there this year with Milan, and because it creates one of the few positional advantages possible for the USMNT when we look at matchups.
midfield
We start Adams (assuming he’s healthy) and Musah at the base. Those are our two quickest midfielders – and if the Colombia match should have taught us anything it’s that we need more dynamism in midfield. McKennie gets the nod at attacking mid due to his long passing ability, aerial prowess, and better defensive capabilities vs Reyna
defensive third
It’s crucial that we do not leave ourselves exposed against Brazil’s pace. 5 at the back, with our quickest defenders on the pitch should do the trick. Robinson and Weah give us the best chance to slow down Raphinha and Vini Jr. on the flanks. Robinson and Richards at outside CB have pace to cover if those two get caught up field – which they inevitably will given we need them to get forward to support the attack. Ream’s lack of pace hides in the middle where his experience, ability to read the game, and passing skills can shine.
Shaded circles behind each player represent Dos a Cero’s measurement of the player’s capabilities compared to the Brazilian players who will be closest to them on the pitch – except Matt Turner who is compared to Brazil’s keeper. Ratings are based on a combination of (i) EA FC 24 player ratings; (ii) transfer market valuations (actually the logarithm of transfer market valuations, which reflects that transfer values escalate dramatically for the world’s very top players despite minor differences in quality); and (iii) average match performance ratings in the 23/24 club season, adjusted for league quality (e.g. strong performances in MLS are not given as much weight as strong performances in the Premier League).
Scale: Significant Advantage, Slight Advantage, Even, Slight Disadvantage, Significant Disadvantage
prediction
As of publication, Berhalter has just come out on record and indicated the US will play a more open game than we’d like to see. In media availability on Tuesday he stated “the message to the team after the Colombia game is not chasing a result, [but] chasing a performance…I think the natural tendency would be to say, ‘OK, now it’s only about the result,’ but the reality is it’s a friendly game. We are preparing for a tournament. We want to gain information on Brazil, and our own players, so we have to be brave.” We also now know that Adams will play, but it’s expected to be less than 45 minutes. We’re betting he comes on in the 60th for Cardoso.
This means Berhalter is not planning to do anything we recommended above. As a result, we expect a 4-3-3 from the USA, an open game with lots of goals, and a Brazil victory. We just hope we keep it close enough to not go into the Copa demoralized. While we can partially understand this instinct, we think it would be better preparation for the tournament to play the way we would need to if we really needed a result – which we obviously would in a knock out game. With this decision we’ll be going into the Uruguay match or the knockout rounds without practicing tactics we’ll have to impliment in a critical game. We think this sets us up for failure.
Despite what we view as a bad choice by Berhalter, we do see the guys having a strong response to the Colombia game and coming out fired up and motivated for this one. Still, Brazil will control possession given their superior technical ability. Chances will be limited for the USA on the break, but we have the distribution ability to create chances. We expect Brazil to lead 2-1 at the half with the USA firmly in the game.
In the second half, Adams will come on which will help tremendously on defense. But…Berhalter will foolishly have a midfield with both Reyna and Tillman at the same time. After that, Brazil will carve through midfield and create more chances, and we’ll struggle to advance the ball on the counter. The back 4 + Adams will hold firm until about the 75th minute when Brazil will double their advantage. USA drops the match but can keep our chins high knowing we were competitive with Brazil with our Starting 11 on the pitch AND with the wrong tactics to boot. On to the Copa America with some optimism. Phew.
Final Score: USA 1 – 3 Brazil
best bets
We hate betting against the USA. Even if we think it’s the best value bet, it just makes watching the game less fun knowing that in the back of your mind you have some incentive to root against your team. So, even though we’re forecasting a Brazil victory, that won’t be the bet we’re placing on this one. If you don’t mind betting against the USA though, we like Brazil to Win and Both Teams to Score at +175, especially if the USA plans to “be brave” as Berhalter put it.
For those like us who refuse to bet against the USA, we’ll review a few more options. As of publication, the USA is +450, with Brazil -210 and a Tie +350. USA or Tie at +155 is not awful but Berhalter’s pre-game comments make us think he will absolutely not prioritize getting a result here. +155 implies a 40% chance but we think the real chance of a USA win or draw is closer to 25% or 30% so we’ll pass on that.
Both Teams to Score at -155 looks attractive, as noted above. The USA seems set to play an open match, so Brazil absolutely will score, and Brazil has conceded 5 goals in 3 matches under new manager Dorival Junior. -155 implies about 60% real world odds of that happening, and we think the odds are closer to 75%. Good value there.
Given Brazil’s attacking power and Berhalter’s plan not to prioritize a result we’re hesitant to take the under on just about any number of goals. However, taking the Over 2.5 Goals at -200 sounds like another good value. That implies 67% real world odds, but over 2.5 seems like a virtual certainty. We’re putting $20 on this one to win $10 and hoping that the USA gets more of them than we expected.
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Best matches of the weekend, brought to you by #DosACero. This is the final match window before the guys head to #Austin for the FIRST CAMP WITH POCHETTINO. Here’s hoping for a strong set of performances, with everyone coming in hot. LFG!
Brazil will be a serious test for us. I think Berhalter is underestimating the value of a win or tie going into COPA. I think 4-1 Brazil is likely.