#11 USMNT Take on Red Hot Colombia Saturday in Key Copa America Tune Up
The US has two critical preparation matches for the 2024 Copa America in early June. These are the only tune ups we’ll have for the most important matches the US will play before the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This team wants to make a run in the World Cup and change the culture around soccer in America – but if they fail to make a run in the Copa America, that will feel increasingly unlikely. There is an unusual amount of pressure on this friendly game as a result.
The first warm up match comes against 12th-ranked Colombia, one of the strongest sides in South America and frankly one of the hottest teams in the world right now. Both teams will have aspirations of winning this tournament or at the very least making the semifinals, so we expect both to play this game competitively.
Let’s take a look at the tale of the tape for an overview of how these teams stack up.
tale of the tape


This is a true heavyweight matchup. Two sides that sit JUST outside the world’s top 10 rankings. Both sides have players who feature for global powerhouse clubs like Liverpool, AC Milan, and Juventus, and squads chock full of players from the Premier League, La Liga, and Serie A. Let’s take a closer look at the positional battles for Saturday night’s game.
positional battles
Before each game, the Dos a Cero team performs extensive research to objectively measure the quality of each position player on the USA as well as our opponent. We produce a proprietary score for each player which takes into account data from (i) independent player ratings data; (ii) transfer market values; and (iii) season performances as scored by independent third parties – adjusted for the strength of the player’s league (in other words, a strong performance in the Premier League or Serie A will be worth more points than a strong performance in the Championship or MLS).
We utilized this methodology to compare where the USA and Colombia will have positional advantages on Saturday evening. The graphic shows a visualization of where we think the US can have the most success on the pitch.
usa attack v. colombia defense - slight edge usa
Under our methodology, Christian Pulisic is the USA’s best player, and is on the verge of being rated “World Class”. In most games, he’ll give us a significant advantage up front. In this match however, he happens to be up against Colombia’s strongest defender, Daniel Muñoz. CP10 still has an advantage but look for Muñoz to keep him relatively in check.
Folarin Balogun has a tough matchup but a slight edge in the center against Jhon Lucumi of Bologna (Serie A) and Davinson Sanchez of Galatasaray (ex-Tottenham), while Tim Weah and Johan Mojica both have pace to burn on the other wing. The more we can get Pulisic cutting inside against Colombia’s slightly weaker central defenders, the better. This should be possible as Antonee Robinson will be able to get forward from his positional battle at LB and keep Muñoz occupied.
Colombia’s defense has only allowed 13 goals in their 21-game unbeaten streak, so the defense is strong. However we think they’ll have to open up a bit because they won’t be able to get in behind the US and play on the counter. Goals are available for the US today.
midfield battle - advantage usa
The most intriguing matchup in midfield will be Tyler Adams versus James Rodriguez. Adams is reportedly looking fit in the US camp, but has barely played for almost 2 years now with a string of injuries. He looked fantastic in the last set of Nations League games and we’re backing him to continue that form on Saturday. US fans may remember the man he’ll need to keep quiet, Rodriguez, from a rock star performance at the 2014 World Cup that catapulted him into the global soccer elite with a spell at Real Madrid. Rodriguez is now 32 and plays in Brazil for Sao Paolo. His performances for Colombia’s national team have been excellent in the last year so it’s no cake walk, but he’s not the same player he once was. Look for Adams to put Rodriguez directly in his pocket.
The marquee matchup in midfield though is Weston McKennie versus Jefferson Lerma, who has put in a strong season of performances for Crystal Palace. Two studs go head to head here and Lerma will be looking to keep the US playmaker quiet.
Last but not least here is Yunus Musah against Kevin Castano. Castano plays for Krasnodar in Russia. Advantage USA. We picked Musah in our Starting 11 specifically so he can provide cover in a key positional battle in the next section of the pitch – Joe Scally versus Luis Diaz. We like Musah’s agility to keep up with Diaz so we’re starting him over Reyna. Let’s see if Coach Berhalter does the same.
usa defense v. colobmia attack - slight edge colombia
Possibly the most important matchup of the game takes place in the US’s defensive third, Joe Scally vs. Luis Diaz. Diaz is unquestionably Colombia’s best player. He featured all season for a Liverpool team that challenged for the Premier League title. In Colombia’s impressive November World Cup Qualifying win over Brazil, Diaz scored both of Colombia’s goals. He goes up against Joe Scally, who will be filling in for the injured Sergino Dest. We like Scally, but this is a tough match up for him. We would have really liked to see Dest here given his agility and better ability to stay with the shifty Diaz. We think Scally will need cover, which is why we’ve got Musah at RM and Richards at right-sided CB in our lineup. Both have the agility to match up with Diaz any time he creates space against Scally.
Colombia’s other attacking options are strong but not like Diaz. Rafael Borre is a quick attacker who plays in Brazil. We think Miles Robinson can keep him relatively quiet. Jhon Arias also plays in Brazil and we expect Antonee Robinson to win that matchup.
Colombia doesn’t pose much threat in the air, so our advice to Scally is to keep Diaz wide. Diaz is dangerous cutting in from the left, but we think if we keep him wide our CBs will handle any crosses he is able to get in.
goalkeepers - slight edge usa
This spot is a concern for the US heading into this tournament. We rate Turner and Horvath highly, but both are coming off of less-than-stellar club seasons, especially Turner who somehow found his way to the bench at Nottingham Forrest after a series of high profile mistakes. We think getting back into US camp will be good for him, but lack of game time does make us nervous for the Copa.
Still, Turner is a quality keeper and better than any of Colombia’s options. Advantage USA.
bench strength - slight edge usa
Our bench is actually kind of stacked. We have guys who can change a game – Gio Reyna, Haji Wright, Malik Tillman. We have depth a defensive midfield as Cardoso has had an excellent season in La Liga for Real Betis. He’s now tied for the 3rd most value US player in the transfer market, behind only CP10 and Balogun. Tillman had a fantastic season for PSV with 9 goals and 10 assists.
Colombia’s bench features Luis SInisterra, who many US fans will remember from the 22/23 season with Leeds. He’s pacey and quick, and can score. The rest of their bench is solid, but doesn’t scare us. As the game wears on we like the US to get stronger.

tactical keys to success
Even though Colombia is an extremely strong team, we like the US’s midfield to control this one. That means our main vulnerability will be on our right side of defense versus Luis Diaz. We think Weah on the right can help a bit – given he played RWB for Juve most of this season, and Musah can help from midfield. Force Diaz wide, let Adams keep Rodriguez under control and then Richards + Miles Robinson will cut out any crosses.
In attack, it will be tough to get in behind Colombia as they do have the pace to keep up with us. We think Balogun is underratted as a passer, and we need him to pull their CBs out of the middle. Our preferred attack will be Balogun with his back to goal, finding McKennie an Pulisic with runs into the left side of Colombia’s box. Both need to bring their finishing boots on Saturday for the US to get our Copa America warm up off to a good start.
prediction
We expect an open, entertaining game. Both teams have global stars in attack. It won’t be a goal fest but there will be goals. The Dos a Cero team expects the US’s depth to carry the day, with Reyna and Wright coming off the bench to make an impact like they did against Jamaica.
Final Score: USA 2 – 1 Colombia
best bets
The oddsmakers have this one pegged as a virtual dead heat. Colombia is +165 with the US at +170. That doesn’t stand out to us as particularly favorable one direction or the other from a betting perspective. Over/Under on total goals is centered around 2, with over 1.5 goals at -250 and under 2.5 goals at -165.
The bet that stands out to us as having the best risk reward ratio is actually for both teams to score at -110. We think the chances of both teams scoring is well over 50% in this one so we’re putting up $20 on that one.
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Great article!! Very informative!! I’m excited to watch the game!! USA!!
Great preview of the game. I think Pulisic will find the back of the net. If we can get that second goal, we will win.
Go USA!!
Love this preview! USA USA USA!