You already know that the US Women convincingly won their Olympic opener over Zambia 3-0, but could easily have scored more. Check out this chart of Expected Goals (xG) over the course of the match. 

Based on the chances we created, and based analysis of goals from similar shots in prior games, we should have scored 6.4 goals (per Wyscout). Wow. We’ll need to be much more clinical against Germany.

In their first match, the Germans defeated Australia 3-0. Two of their three goals came off of headers on corner kicks, with the third coming off a nice buildup from the center of the pitch where they carved open the Aussie defense. Germany was in clear control of this match from start to finish and deserved all three points.

Keep in mind that in the women’s tournament, 2 of the 3 third place teams will advance. In all likelihood, this means 1 more point from the next two games will see the US through to the knockouts. But we all want to see more and to see the USWNT return to the top of the global game, so let’s talk about how we go for the W. 

First, here are the group standings heading into today’s games.

This will be dangerous, because Germany’s right midfielder/right winger, Jule Brand, looks world class. She’s tall, fast, has good touch, a good long shot, and hits good crosses. She scored Germany’s third goal against Australia, led the team in xG, expected assists (xA), and generally looked like the best player on the pitch.

Given their size advantage, the Germans played lots of long balls. In fact 11% of their passes were long balls compared with 4% for the US against Zambia. Germany also won a significant majority of aerial duels.

The USWNT recently added a top tier set piece coach, and he’ll need to earn his paycheck in this one as we expect Germany to be a threat from free kicks and corners. If both teams start the same 11, there will be a mismatch in terms of height. There will be 5 German field players with at least a 3” height advantage over the US player who marks them on set pieces.

We don’t want to overreact to this, but Germany just scored twice with headers from set pieces against Australia, it does deserve attention. We would start Korbin Albert who is several inches taller than Sam Coffey, and we think her quickness also gives us an advantage in midfield. We would also swap in Casey Krueger at LB. That is a more significant change, but she looked solid in that position against Zambia, and Crystal Dunn’s height (5’2” v. Coffey at 5’8”) is a liability in this match. We’re going to have to help on Brand (5’10”) on that side of the field anyway so let’s at least put someone who has a better chance against her in the air on that side of our defense.

We have to minimize German set piece opportunities and avoid fouling in our own third. Naeher should be prepared to be aggressive on crosses and corners. Their height advantage is less pronounced when looking at their strikers versus our CBs. Speaking of which, we’ll get to see Girma’s aerial prowess this game, as it will be a different test compared to the pace she had to display against Zambia.

This game is crying out for Lindsey Horan’s influence. She’s our lone midfielder with the size and aerial ability to match Germany’s. We’d position her central and deep to provide an aerial presence on German long balls out of the back.

In attack, we have an advantage in speed and agility. We wouldn’t change the front 3, as Smith has just been pronounced fit ahead of publication. We also think Rose Lavelle could have a field day if we can get her in space against Germany’s slower players, particularly their left CB, Hegering. We’d position her at RM and Albert at LM, because Krueger will need Albert’s pace to prevent Brand from making dangerous outside-in runs from Germany’s right.

We should keep the ball on the ground in attack. We would even concede some possession so we can look to counter, where our athleticism can cause problems. Let’s take inspiration from Muhammad Ali’s here and “rope a dope”. 

This will be a close match. Gambling markets are giving the US about a 45 percent chance to win, with Germany having about a 30% chance. This will be the first true test for the team under new coach Emma Hayes, as Germany looks to be very serious medal contender. We can’t wait.