Germany qualified for the semifinal by outlasting Canada, getting a win on penalties after a 0-0 tie in their quarterfinal. Canada was perfect in their 3 group stage games with wins over New Zealand, France, and Colombia. Those are 3 solid wins so we think this validates our earlier view that Germany is a very dangerous side.

The good news for the USWNT from that Germany/Canada match is that the Germans were also forced to go 120 minutes. In fact, they may have had an even more intense 120 minutes than we did given how balanced that match was compared to our match versus Japan where there was a lot more passing of the ball around the back. 

One of the big storylines following our victory over Japan was the lack of substitutions by Emma Hayes, both in that match and during our game against Australia where we had an opportunity to rest players. The team looked tired at the end of the match and if not for Rodman’s heroics we might have gone out.

Even Hayes herself has been put on the defensive about those decisions, addressing them at that same press conference before the Germany match. Hayes noted that the USWNT is facing teams that have been together under their head coaches for longer, allowing them to be more cohesive tactically, which is why she is sticking with the same 11 when possible. “I’m having to accelerate everything, hence the reason why I don’t make many changes,” she said Monday. 

We too have been concerned about our women running out of gas, so we wanted to know how our minutes compared to the minutes the German women have played thus far in the tournament. The data is below, sorted from most to least minutes played by any player on each team. The short answer is that the two teams have had nearly identical minutes. 

Perhaps it’s not as big of a deal as we all thought. We’ll find out come matchday. 

Another reason why the minutes played issue may not be as big of a factor is that the USA looks set to get several key players back who were out against Japan.

First, we know that Sam Coffey will return from her yellow card suspension. We’ve been quite clear we aren’t Coffey’s biggest fans, but the fresh legs will help whether in the starting eleven or off the bench. 

Second, Tierna Davidson and Jaedyn Shaw look like they are able to play. We cannot say for certain that they will play, but both were full participants in training on Monday. Hayes declined to say if they would be available but did note that it’s a very good sign they were full participants in training.

Davidson in particular would be a major boost, as she’s a significantly better defender in our view than Emily Sonnett who has filled in while Davidson’s been injured. Among other things, her height would be helpful against a very tall German side.

In our match preview for the first game against Germany, we spotlighted the team’s size and tendency to score goals on set pieces. That of course remains true, but now that we have 4 matches worth of data, let’s take a bit of a closer look at their style of play.

Germany has played a 4-4-2 nearly every minute of this tournament.

Germany has a balanced attack, having averaged 50.6% possession during the Olympics. When they have the ball, they tend to be aggressive. They have the most 1-on-1 dribbles, and the second most long passes. They have been caught offsides more than any other team. Lastly, their strength in the air shows through in their 10 headed shots, the most in the tournament.

Germany has a middle-of-the-road challenge intensity (defensive actions per minute of opponent possession). Their defensive midfielders form an important part of the defense, as they both are among the tournament leaders in aerial duels and interceptions. Of note, the Germans have the worst success rate in defensive duels of any team in the tournament, a stat that could be telling given the US front three has a very high success rate in 1-on-1 dribbles. 

Even though there isn’t anything in their prior tactics to suggest it, we would not be surprised to see Germany come out in a low block and look to hit us on the counter in this game. Since we last played Germany, Australia and Japan both had success limiting the USA’s chance creation with that strategy, and Germany can certainly hit on the counter.

If they do, the US should look to Rodman to beat her defender and send in crosses, then be sure that Horan is far enough forward to challenge in the air. Swanson, Smith, and Lavelle should look to pick up loose balls in the box and create secondary chances.

We expect this match to be much tighter than the first one between these teams. Late-stage knockout matches are often cagey affairs because there is so much that can be lost with a single mistake.

It is always difficult to beat a good team two times in quick succession, and while the score from the first game heavily favored the US, the game itself was much more competitive. According to expected goals, the US was just in front with 2.11 to Germany’s 1.63. 

Still, we should be confident heading into this one, having beaten Germany only 9 days prior. We know it sounds like a broken record, but we expect our front 3 to make the difference again. Rodman was rampant in the first match against Germany, as their left back was completely unable to handle Trinity’s pace and skill. The German left center back is slow, and we think we can exploit that given our front 3 are so quick.

On the downside, we think Germany will play through our midfield easily when they do have the ball and will create chances on the counter. Girma and (hopefully) Davidson will have their hands full, but we think they can keep the German attack quieter than their defense can keep our front 3.

We’re predicting a win for the USA, and then it’s on to the gold medal match.