The US Women have looked like one of if not the best teams in the Olympic tournament thus far. Still a long way to go before a medal can be won, but the team looks so much better than we did in the last World Cup. Off to a great start.

As you probably know, we have already qualified for the quarterfinals/knockout stages of the tournament. We also are in phenomenal position to win the group, and would have to completely collapse against Australia in order for anyone else to have a chance.

Australia were well-beaten by Germany 3-0 in their first game and won a wild one against Zambia 6-5 in the second game. Clearly, they don’t have anyone like Naomi Girma to keep tabs on Zambia’s Barbra Banda – who bagged a hat trick against Australia. Australia could have lost to Zambia with some goal keeping and defensive errors helping them get back in the game after falling behind 5-2.

Australia has a high pressure defense, with the highest challenge intensity of any team. They also have made the second most progressive runs, so they aren’t afraid to get forward. Lastly, they tend to do a lot of 1-on-1 dribbling, haven taken on their defender 71 times through 2 matches, second only to the USA (73 times).

If we had more to play for, we’d back the USA to win this handily, but with injuries, squad rotation, and a potential lack of motivation, we think Australia has a chance to get a result. Still, we think their defensive frailties (8 goals conceded through 2 matches) will be exploited by virtually anyone Hayes could put out there. Here’s hoping for 9 points and continued momentum heading into the quarters.

Speaking of momentum, it will be very interesting to watch how the team reacts given we’ve virtually won the group already. Will the players who get an opportunity to prove themselves give it their all, or will the whole team conserve energy for later games? Ideally, we’d like to see Hayes keep the intensity up for at least the first 60 minutes, but then be able to take it easy from there, similar to what the Men did against Guinea in their third group stage match.

We’ll close out today with some stats about how great the women’s team has been through the first two matches. 

First, we have 4 most dangerous attackers in the tournament. Amazing. For this stat, we’re looking at expected goals + expected assists. Basically a measure of how involved a player has been in goal scoring opportunities. For comparison, in the men’s tournament no team has more than 1 player in the top 5. 

And it’s not just our attack that’s humming. In addition to scoring the most goals, we’ve conceded the fewest too, giving us the best goal differential by a very wide margin. We’ve played Germany, a legit medal contender. And our ability to limit Zambia’s opportunities looks more impressive after their 5 goal showing against Australia.