The US Women have been dominant so far this Olympics. We continue to have the best goal differential by a wide margin, have scored the most goals and created the best scoring chances too. In fact, we have the Top 4 players in the tournament in expected goals + expected assists. But it’s not just our attack, we’ve conceded among the fewest goals, and Naomi Girma has been fantastic in defense. We’ve also dominated the ball with 68% possession. We have shown no real weakness, except a few careless giveaways that created opportunities for opponents in midfield.

Are we THAT good? Or was our group just THAT weak? Our money is on us just being THAT good, because Australia was a semifinalist at the last world cup and Germany is clearly a good side. However, we’re about to find out the real answer to that question as the knockout stages begin with our quarterfinal matchup against Japan.

We have dominated this matchup historically, with 31 wins, 8 draws, and 1 loss. One of those 31 wins was in the 2012 Gold Medal match, by a score of 2-1. Another was in the April She Believes Cup, also by a 2-1 Margin. We conceded in the first minute in that much, but dominated that game. Expected Goals were 3.67 for the USA and 0.51 for Japan. Look at the attack momentum below:

Sam Coffey will sit this one out due to Yellow card accumulation. Look for Korbin Albert to fill in. We saw Albert score a great goal against Australia, and think her ability to shoot from distance could be important in this game.

The US has two players whose injury statuses are worth noting. Hayes stated on Friday that she’ll wait as long as possible to make a decision on both Tierna Davidson (knee contusion) and Jaedyn Shaw (leg). That’s encouraging news as both players were out of the matchday squad for Australia, so they are clearly making some progress. If they are unable to go, expect Emily Sams and Croix Bethune to continue to take their respective roster slots.

As we did with Morocco for the men, we’re doing a deeper dive on Japan that we did for any of the USA Women’s group stage opponents.

Japan has played most of this tournament with 5 at the back, a formation we saw Australia use effectively to frustrate the US for long stretches of that match. Mostly they have used a 5-3-2 formation, with 5 defenders and 2 forwards. In the April match versus the USA, Japan played with 4 defenders in the first half and 5 in the second. We’re betting they’ll go with 5 after seeing Australia at least keep things competitive versus the USA by using that strategy last match.

Japan tends to concede possession against better teams, choosing instead to solidify their defenses and look to break quickly. It’s been effective in the World Cup as they are among the leaders in goals scored and expected goals, despite averaging only 36% possession. 

Similar to the USWNT, Japan has a mixture of experience and youth. Here’s a look at some of their key players across the defensive, midfield, and attacking lines. 

In our view, the USA is tactically well-suited to handle Japan. They like to counter, and we’ve proven an ability to shut down counters including the always dangerous Barbra Banda from Zambia. Thank goodness for Naomi Girma. 

While breaking down a back 5 is never easy, we should have a good chance to do it given our ability to beat defenders off the dribble, which is one of very few ways to create space against a back 5. 

Lastly, we’d like to see the team be more aggressive with getting the ball in the box against Japan with crosses and long shots. Japan’s keeper has made errors this tournament, and we think our front 3 is just the group to take advantage if / when she does again. 

Anything can happen, but we should win this game. We honestly think Japan is a bit lucky to have gotten second in their group, as their late comeback against Brazil had more than just a little good fortune. The USWNT on the other hand, hasn’t needed any luck and has dominated all three matches. We beat them in April and bossed that game despite conceding in the first minute. And that was before Emma Hayes took over. 

That doesn’t mean it will be easy, but we think that once we get an opening goal against Japan and they have to attack more, this one will be all over.