It’s hard to believe it’s been just over 2 weeks since the Women’s Olympic Soccer tournament began. Since then, trepidation over wasted chances in warm up matches has turned to confidence in a world class strike force of Smith, Swanson, and Rodman. Cautious optimism that we would return to our place atop global women’s soccer under Hayes has turned into having our swagger back and heading into the final as heavy favorites. Betting markets give us a 70% chance to bring home the gold. What an amazing 2 weeks.

On Saturday the USWNT will take on Brazil with a gold medal on the line, and with history firmly on our side. This will be the third time in the last 5 Olympics the two have met in the final. The USA won both the 2004 and 2008 gold medals with extra time victories over Brazil. We have also won the last 7 meetings with Brazil, including the final of the 2024 W Gold Cup in March. In 40 all-time meetings with Brazil, the USWNT has tallied 32 victories and only 3 losses.

Still, this version of Brazil has proven how dangerous they are – especially in knockout games. They eliminated 2 of the other 3 pre-tournament favorites, beating hosts France 1-0 in the quarters, and defending World Cup champions Spain in the semis. Some might call this a surprise after finishing 3rd in their group at this Olympics, but their victory over Spain in particular was well-deserved.

This team has a chance to take their place alongside other legendary USWNTs, and to extend the USA’s dominance in Olympics Women’s Soccer.

US first-choice center back Tierna Davidson left the semifinal game versus Germany at halftime, with what appeared to be a reaggravation of the knee injury that caused her to miss the prior two matches. After the match she was walking gingerly while the rest of the team ran on to the pitch to celebrate the victory. It doesn’t look good for Davidson but there is no official update on her status as of publication. 

Like the USWNT, Brazil changed coaches after a disappointing 2023 World Cup. They let Pia Sundhage go and brought in Arthur Elias. Sundhage was the USWNT coach during both our 2008 and 2012 gold medal Olympic campaigns.

Elias has moved to a system with 3 center backs, typically playing either a 5-3-2 or 3-4-3 during this tournament. In some respects, they are similar to Japan and Zambia in attack but Brazil plays with much higher defensive intensity than those prior USWNT opponents. The only game in which they controlled more than 50% of possession was against Japan, who US fans will recall, play a very defensive / counter attacking style.

Brazil has scored 7 goals in 5 games, approximately equal to their Expected Goals (xG) of 7.83. The USA by comparison has scored 11 goals versus 12.89 xG.

Brazil typically concedes control of the ball, but when they do have possession, they look to strike quickly. They rank towards the top of the tournament in through balls and long balls per 90 minutes, despite being towards the bottom in possession. They complete only 71% of their passes, compared to 87% for the USWNT. However, that’s not because they aren’t good passers, it’s because they make much more aggressive passes and try to create chances quickly. Brazil is, however, prone to unforced errors when building out from the back. Look for the USWNT to try to pounce on these.

Brazil has conceded 6 goals through 5 matches, significantly outperforming their Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 13.67, which is highest in the tournament. The USA by comparison has conceded twice versus an xGA of 4.84.

Brazil has the 3rd highest challenge intensity (duels, tackles, and interceptions per minute of opponent possession) in the Olympics. That’s impressive given how little of the ball they typically have. They do however, commit a lot of fouls, having the second most fouls per 90 minutes. We point this out in part because they only win 40% of aerial duels, among the worst in the tournament. The USWNT wins 56% of aerial duels, so those fouls could create meaningful scoring chances for the USA on set pieces. Lindsey Horan scored the winner against Brazil in the W Gold Cup with a header.

Brazil has a talented squad. Seven of their players are in the USA’s women’s league, the NWSL. Five play in Spain. Playing abroad is much less common in women’s soccer so it’s safe to assume these players bring skills to their clubs that would be difficult to find domestically. The remaining 10 players (including alternates) play in Brazil, mostly for the best club team there, Corinthians.

We think this is a fascinating tactical matchup. In recent years, the USWNT has struggled at times against smaller, quicker teams like Brazil. We had to hang on to get a 0-0 draw against Portugal in the last World Cup, and lost to Mexico 2-0 in the 2024 CONCACAF W Gold Cup. Our midfield is frankly slow, and at times the quicker players are able to dictate play in that part of the pitch. Recent performances by our midfield don’t exactly inspire confidence they can control this match either.

The difference now though is that in the event Brazil controls the ball, our front 3 will have space on the counter and this new front 3 is too dynamic to contain on the counter. So we expect Brazil to try to create transition opportunities by pouncing on our midfield, but to also keep their back line fairly deep. This will create space for the front 3 to drop into midfield to receive ball, then look to turn and get at Brazil’s backline. Smith did it well against Japan as did Swanson against Germany in semis.

Brazil has had success generating transition opportunities in other games, whether with a high press or with incisive counter attacks. We therefore need to keep our shape and look to play quickly in midfield even if it means hitting a hopeful long ball. Horan and Sonnett have both been guilty of turnovers in dangerous situations, so they need to be careful. Lynn Williams is an option off the bench if we need to bypass midfield again, like we did against Germany.

Finally, we should look to create our own transition opportunities given Brazil is prone to mistakes building out of the back. Our front 3 is dynamic and has a high work rate, so they can do it. Trinity Rodman leads all attackers in this tournament with 18 interceptions, and Brazilian CB Tarciane had 12 giveaways in the W Gold Cup Final. We can create just as many opportunities with pressure as Brazil can

Everyone in a gold medal match is going to give their all but expect Brazil to give something extra this match. It’s Marta’s final match, and many of the players on the team will have grown up idolizing her. She’s never won a world championship, and they have a chance to get her one. The parallels with Messi and Argentina at the 2022 World Cup are obvious, so expect Brazil to be desperate to send Marta out with a W, whether she starts or not.

But the USA has the 4 best players in this tournament, and they’ve been able to carry us this far. We see no reason why Girma at the back plus the dynamic front 3 can’t do it again. Lynn Williams is an option off the bench if we need to bypass midfield like we did against Germany. Once we get that attack turning at their back line, chances will come. Lorena will make some great saves to keep Brazil in it, but in the end the US just has too much firepower. We think Smith and Rodman score for the US with Portilho pulling one back for Brazil.