For the first time since 2000 the USA has advanced to the knockout rounds at an Olympic Men’s Soccer Tournament. That is worth acknowledging but given how weak New Zealand and Guinea proved to be, perhaps not worth celebrating. If we manage to get past Morocco in the quarterfinals, that would be worth celebrating.

That 2000 Olympic roster included 6 players who had never been on a World Cup roster at the time, but ended up making one in the future. Chris Albright, Landon Donovan, Tim Howard, John O’Brien, Ben Olsen, and Josh Wolff all made the jump.

We think the 2024 team has several players that are capable of making a World Cup squad in 2026 or 2030. It will be interesting to track the progression of Aaronson, Busio, Paredes, Slonina, and Tessman on that front in particular.

Back in 2000, we topped a group that included Cameroon (with Samule Eto’o), the Czech Republic (with Milan Baros and Tomas Ujfalusi), and Kuwait (with a bunch of guys none of us have ever heard of). We advanced past Japan in the quarters on penalties, then fell to a Spanish side that included future Spanish legends Xavi and Carles Puyol. No shame in that. We had a chance at a medal but fell to Chile in the Bronze medal game, while Spain lost to Cameroon on penalties in the final.

If the 2024 team is going to win the first men’s soccer medal in modern history, they will have a challenging path to get there. Morocco is a stiff test in the Quarters (more on that below), Spain looms in the Semis, and France or Argentina would be difficult to overcome in a Gold or Bronze medal match. As a side note – the USA won both the Silver and Bronze (yes both) at the 1904 Olympics in St. Louis, when 3 club teams entered the tournament. Two American teams and one Canadian side. No drones were deployed when Canada won that gold. 

There hasn’t been a lot of news around the Men’s team since their victory over Guinea booked a place in the quarters. Players were featured on the today show – it’s a great segment if you haven’t seen it (video below). They’ve also been spotted enjoying some of the other Olympic sports now that they are actually in Paris, which is to cool to see.

With respect to actual team news, the only major question is whether Busio will be fit, but the team hasn’t put anything out (as of publication) about his status. If he can’t go, we’re begging head coach Marko Mitrovic to play McGlynn and not Dietz alongside Tessman in midfield.

We’re doing a deeper dive on Morocco than we did for any of the USA’s group stage opponents, given we are now at the business end of the tournament and a win here would give us a chance to play for a medal.

Morocco reminds us somewhat of Uruguay or Colombia from the Copa America. That should be a scary statement for US fans as we’ve tended to struggle against teams that play with that kind of intensity.

Note that all 6 of these players are in attack, with the exception of Hakimi. The rest of the defense is gettable, with a particular weak spot at left center back. Mehdi Boukamir is on the books at one of the lower tier teams in Belgium and is not a regular starter. The US should look to get Aaronson, Yow, and Paredes in space against him on the counter.

Moroccan fans are among the most passionate in the world. There is also a huge Moroccan population in France. The atmosphere will be like a cauldron and we do expect this to have an impact, particularly given the relative youth and inexperience of men’s Olympic soccer teams. Our founder attended the last World Cup in Qatar, and captured these scenes of Moroccan fans taking over one of the main tournament fan zones. 

If Hakimi is causing too much damage, we would move Aaronson to the left and have Yow play as a false 9. We need legs and defensive energy to counter Hakimi on the right and Aaronson will bring that. Yow is among tournament leaders in 1-on-1 dribble success rate, so we can put him up against their weaker CB, Boukamir, and along with Paredes on that side, let him go to work. Either way, we expect our chances to come down our right wing, with Aaronson and Paredes in Wyscout’s tournament best 11 through the group stage.

And finally, if Busio can’t go, we have to play McGlynn in midfield. Dietz has proven he can’t handle the pace and intensity that Morocco will bring. It will look like we’re playing with 10 men if we play Dietz in midfield.

There’s no way around it. This is going to be an extremely difficult match. It will be Morocco trying to speed up the game, and us trying to slow it down while they have the ball. When we’re in possession, we need to look to break quickly down our right flank and wreak havoc. The more we can prevent them from making the game chaotic, and the more free kicks we can win, the better chance we have.

We aren’t saying we can’t win, we just think Morocco will be too much, especially with their crowd behind them. It’s a relatively even match up, but Morocco has the better difference makers. We hate to do it, but we are predicting a USA loss for the first time in our (admittedly short) history.