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Mexico just missed the cut for our “Also in the Mix” group of teams in our Power Rankings. They are a strong side, but we just could not justify keeping them in the same grouping as the USA right now, given the USA’s superiority in that rivalry in recent years. Their defense and keeper leave something to be desired, and the keeper problem will be acutely felt in their first major tournament without Memo Ochoa in a long long time. Coach Jaime Lozano’s remarks about the exclusion of Ochoa (and several other aging Mexican stars) from the squad indicate he has an eye on the future. If they struggle at Copa America 2024 will he be around for it?

Edson Alvarez is a strong central midfielder who plays for West Ham in the Premier League. He’s rumored to be a Man United target as that club looks to revamp what was an underwhelming midfield last season. Santiago Gimenez is a young center forward playing in the Dutch league. He scored 26 goals last season across league play, Champions League, and Europa League. Even though the Dutch league isn’t one of Europe’s Top 5 leagues, 2 goals in Champions League is nothing to laugh at. This will be his first major tournament with the team and he’ll be looking for a breakout performance.

Mexican soccer has been in a rough period over the past few years. During the late 2010s, they had regained the upper hand with archrivals USA, but that began to reverse as our new generation of talent began to develop. They are on their third manager in three years, and it’s difficult to develop continuity that way when the national team only gets together every couple of months. Mexico will be looking to flip the narrative , and Copa America provides the perfect opportunity to do that. 

Most pundits – and the oddsmakers in Vegas – would have Ecuador as their second strongest team in Group B, but we are backing Jamaica to actually have a better chance to win this competition. Their new coach, Heimir Hallgrímsson, is well-known for taking minnows Iceland to the quarterfinals of the 2016 Euros, with a strategy of team defense and being difficult to break down. In March this year, we saw these tactics nearly knock the USA out of the last Nations League semifinals, when we lucked out with an own goal in stoppage time to avoid defeat. Jamaica has a lot of talent up front – even without Leon Bailey – which could create problems for defenses while the rest of the team keeps the defensive shape.  Greece won Euro 2004 with exactly the same tactic and we think it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Jamaica to do the same at Copa America

Michail Antonio is a ridiculous physical specimen. He may look to hold the ball up out of the back, and play in the speedy Demari Gray behind. Even though Jamaica’s overall midfield and defense do not rate that highly, Bobby Decordova-Reid (M, Fulham) and Ethan Pinnock (D, Brentford) are very talented. They are on par with Gio Reyna and Antonee Robinson in our models.

Jamaica is a team on the rise. Several English players with Jamaican heritage have elected to play for Jamaica in recent years, meaning this is the most talented team they’ve had in a long time. They have always been quick and athletic, but they now have players with real skill to pair with it. Can new manager Heimer Hallgrimsson recapture the magic he had with Iceland in the Euros and lead Jamaica to a deep run?

Like Peru in our Group B preview, Jamaica is missing a key player due to a dispute with their national soccer federation. Leon Bailey, a forward who had 10 goals and 9 assists in the Premier League for Aston Villa this year, has opted not to play in Copa America. It’s a bit of a crazy story. In November, he missed curfew during a team camp and was suspended. In March, he announced he would take a break from the national team for his mental health and spend time with his family. It seems like a flimsy excuse, as he later went on record as having serious beef with the Jamaican soccer federation, saying they were unprofessional. This article has much more for those interested. 

As you can see above, Ecuador has a more even distribution of talent across the pitch than Jamaica. That is going to make their matchup in this group fascinating. Ecuador knocked off Uruguay (3rd in our Power Rankings) in a World Cup Qualifier last fall, so their peak is really high. They also qualified for the 2022 World Cup and you may remember they impressed in the opening match versus hosts Qatar. They are on pace to qualify again for 2026, and they have a nice blend of youth (covered below) and experience, with players like Enner Valencia having played at a high level for over a decade. 

Ecuador has two outstanding young talents, both aged 22. Moises Caicedo is a bit like a young N’golo Kante (for those who don’t know Kante, that’s extremely high praise – just Google Ngolo Kante memes…) and averaged 6 ball recoveries per game this season. Piero Hincapie is an excellent left-sided defender for Bayer Leverkusen, who famously went undefeated this season in the highly competitive Bundesliga. 17-year-old Kendry Paez currently plays in Ecuador’s domestic league, but has already agreed to join Premier League giants Chelsea in 2025. 

With a blend of youthful energy and experienced players such as Enner Valencia, Ecuador is poised to make a run. We think they have a higher chance to get out of this group that Jamaica, but less chance to win the tournament. The team’s ability to advance will depend heavily on the performances of Caicedo, Hincapie, and Paez. Additionally, the strategic approach and squad management by Felix Sánchez, who has a history of success with Qatar’s national teams, will be under scrutiny as he aims to lead Ecuador to their best-ever Copa America finish

Despite being towards the bottom of our Power Rankings, Venezuela has performed admirably in World Cup Qualifying, including a draw with Brazil and victories over Chie and Paraguay. They have 4 players from Europe’s Top 5 Leagues, supplemented by players from mid-tier leagues like Brazil, Liga MX, and MLS. We’ll be honest, we don’t know a ton about many of these players, but the transfer market is not impressed, as their most valuable player registers a $5m valuation. All but 3 of the USA’s outfield players are more valuable. 

One of those Venezuelans playing in Europe’s top leagues is Yangel Herrera. A midfielder for Girona in Spain’s La Liga. He’s a well-rounded, box-to-box midfielder who pops up with a goal every now and then and is strong in defense as well. Darwin Marchis (F/M) and Yeferson Soteldo (M) have put in strong performances in World Cup Qualifying and Venezuela will need these 3 to perform well to have any chance of getting out of this group.

Strangely, Venezuela did not play any pre-tournament friendlies. They open with a tough match against Ecuador, which isn’t really the time to be figuring out how you want to play as a team. It will be interesting to see how sharp they look without recent matches as a team. They have been strong in defense in recent times, but attacking performances have left something to be desired. 34-year old Salomon Rondon spent the late 2010s in the Premier League but recently moved to Liga MX on a free transfer. Venezuela needs him to recapture his form of a decade ago to make a splash at this tournament.

This group starts with a banger, Mexico v. Jamaica. This tactical matchup will be fascinating as Jamaica will look to frustrate Mexico and hit on the counter. That strategy sounds familiar to this group of USA fans – could we see an old school Dos a Cero for Jamaica against Mexico. 

Ecuador v. Jamaica (June 26) could decide who moves on from this group along with Mexico, it should be played at full tilt.

Mexico v. Ecuador (June 30) will feature the two most overall talented teams in the group. With finishing first in this group likely to have very high value – e.g. avoiding Argentina in the quarters – this should be a fun matchup. 

Our hearts say that Mexico will get eliminated at the group stage, but our brains say they have too much talent for that to happen. Mexico moves on with 5 points. Ecuador beats a Bailey-less Jamaica to take the second spot. All games in this group will be competitive and well played though.